revenue-forecaster-mlML revenue forecast with confidence intervals (Prophet).
FlatRate Clean Sarasota — 6-Month Revenue Forecast (Prophet Model)
Input data (24 months trailing, monthly revenue, seasonal Sarasota market):
| Month | Revenue |
|---|---|
| 2025-08 | $38,200 |
| 2025-09 | $41,600 |
| 2025-10 | $46,900 |
| 2025-11 | $52,300 |
| 2025-12 | $58,100 |
| 2026-01 | $61,400 (snowbird season peak) |
| 2026-02 | $64,800 |
| 2026-03 | $67,200 |
| 2026-04 | $59,500 |
| 2026-05 | $51,300 |
| 2026-06 | $47,800 |
Prophet fit with yearly seasonality on, weekly off, 95 percent interval, run against the full 24-month series.
Forecast, next 6 months:
| Month | Predicted | Low (95 percent) | High (95 percent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | $46,900 | $41,200 | $52,600 |
| 2026-08 | $45,100 | $39,000 | $51,300 |
| 2026-09 | $49,800 | $43,100 | $56,500 |
| 2026-10 | $57,600 | $50,200 | $65,000 |
| 2026-11 | $63,900 | $55,800 | $72,000 |
| 2026-12 | $70,200 | $61,400 | $79,000 |
Trend component: underlying growth of roughly $850 per month, driven by Recurring plan signups compounding month over month.
Seasonality component: strong winter peak (snowbird season, November through March) and a summer dip (June through August) tied to fewer Airbnb turnovers and vacationing families pausing Recurring service.
Takeaway for Mike: budget marketing spend AHEAD of the July/August trough (retention offers for Recurring customers) and staff up before October, since the model shows a 24 percent jump from September to November driven by returning snowbirds and holiday move-outs.